According to research from Goldman Sachs, artificial intelligence (AI) is beginning to exert noticeable pressure on labor markets across major developed economies. The firm found that the effects of AI adoption are not uniform, varying significantly based on an industry’s nature and the seniority level of the worker.
Sectors Experiencing Job Growth Slowdowns
The investment bank noted that industries with a high degree of exposure to AI automation have generally experienced a slowdown in job opening growth since the second half of 2022. This pattern was particularly evident in Germany, Australia, and the United States.
The report revealed that the information and communication services sector, which is highly exposed to AI technologies, has seen employment slow down in nearly all major developed economies since 2022. Despite this slowdown, employment in these industries remains close to or above their long-run average trend, excluding the U.S. market.
Furthermore, employment in several other highly AI-exposed sectors—including call centers, software publishing, management consulting, and advertising—has significantly fallen below historical trends across developed markets. Call centers, in particular, exhibited marked declines: employment is currently 39% below trend in the U.S., 33% below trend in Canada, and 27% below trend in Germany. Goldman concluded that these figures suggest that AI-related employment pressure is already visible in industries where automation tools are available.
Disproportionate Impact on Entry-Level Workers
The analysis showed that the negative effects of AI headwinds are most pronounced for workers who are just starting their careers. The research analyzed employment growth across over 800 occupations and determined that entry-level workers face the strongest headwinds related to AI. The report also identified a smaller, supplementary negative impact in occupations deemed to have a high risk of displacement by AI.
When examining the broader labor market, the findings were quantitative: a 10% occupational exposure to AI was correlated with a 0.1 percentage point reduction in annual headcount growth in France, Canada, and the U.S. However, for entry-level workers, the impact ranged more severely, between over 0.6 percentage points in Australia and over 0.2 percentage points in the U.S.
The Landscape of AI Adoption
The labor market shifts are occurring while AI adoption continues to spread across developed economies. By combining data from 11 separate surveys, Goldman found that major developed markets currently report average AI adoption rates between 15% and 20%. Leading the adoption curve are France, the U.S., the Netherlands, and the U.K., while Italy, Japan, and New Zealand reported adoption rates at the lower end of the scale.
In comparison, major emerging economies reported estimated adoption rates ranging between 10% and 15%.
